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Showing posts with label author anthony ricigliano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label author anthony ricigliano. Show all posts

Friday, September 30, 2011

Anthony Ricigliano - EPA Chooses Political Expediency over Doing the Right Thing

Anthony Ricigliano - News by Anthony J Ricigliano: In exempting up to twenty industrial facilities from new federal controls on air pollution and the gases blamed for global warming, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has signaled that the Obama administration does not have the political will to move aggressively on any kind of global warming initiatives.

This cave-in was confirmed recently when a high ranking EPA official told a federal court that a California power plant which had been delayed would not have to comply with the rules. The agency rationalized in statement, that “…it was not fair or appropriate to require facilities with applications in the final stage of the review to comply with standards that have just recently taken effect.”

The delay for the facility was originally caused by the EPA’s demand to the federal court that the Avenal Power Center, LLC in central California would have “…to prove that its 600-megawatt, natural gas-fired power plant would not cause violations of a new standard on smog-forming nitrogen oxide”. The Avenal Power Center sued the EPA, citing prolonged delays on approving its permit, which was first submitted in February 2008.

The EPA’s reversal comes as Republican leaders in the House and Senate continue their attacks on the Obama administration’s proposed air pollution regulations which, the Republicans say, will kill projects and jobs. In their continuing efforts to neuter the EPA, these same leaders recently proposed legislation that would prevent the agency from regulating greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.

The EPA announced that between ten and twenty new facilities waiting for air pollution permits could also receive exemptions from the new pollution requirements.

After reviewing the court documents Michael Gerrard, an environmental law professor at Columbia University said, "It creates a strong argument for 'treat us the same way you treat this guy." Gerrard also said the move "is part of the administration's effort not to stop or be accused of stopping too many new projects."

The issue now is that removing the restrictions on up to twenty new facilities could open the door for hundreds of other projects to challenge the EPA’s pollution restrictions. If the administration and the EPA think that this reversal will quell the ongoing political attacks, they’ll be in for an unpleasant surprise as emboldened Republican leaders fight to lift restrictions on every plant waiting for a permit to be approved. 
   
If, as it looks now, the agency and the administration lack the political will to make a stand the legislation will be effectively gutted. That would be to detriment of everyone, including the Republicans who seem so intent on heating the globe.
By Anthony Ricigliano

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Anthony Ricigliano News - Four Industries Where China has Passed the U.S

By Anthony Ricigliano: America was known for the better part of the last century as the single greatest producer of just about everything in the world. It was during the 70’s that we started to cede our dominance in major industries to other areas of the world.

Oil production went to the Middle East, automobile production went to Japan, and the cracks in America’s manufacturing dominance began to grow by the year. Since that time, U.S. manufacturing has eroded but in total, we still lead the world.

China has had one of the fastest growing large economies in the world for the past several years.  China passed Japan in total manufacturing to take the number two spot in the world. Economists are now going about forecasting not if but when China will pass U.S. in total manufacturing output.

The U.S. is now trying to stay competitive in the global arena across a wide spectrum of industries, handicapped in the fight by annual deficits, expanding national debt, and an unemployment rate which stubbornly remains well above 9%. 

Here are four industries that illustrate how far the U.S. has fallen behind in industries that it used to dominate. In each industry China, the world’s second largest manufacturing economy, has taken a huge lead:

* High-tech – China manufactured $381 billion in 2008 versus U.S. production of $231 billion. If current trends remain in place, the U.S. is going to have a tough time catching up as China’s exports of high-tech products grew by 78% between 2005 and 2008 while the U.S. saw a 21% increase over the same period.

* Coal production – Once the world leader in coal production, the U.S. has fallen far behind China. In 2009, the U.S. produced a little over 1 billion short tons of coal, less than one-third of China’s production which totaled 3.3 billion short tons. Trends indicate again that China should remain firmly entrenched as the leader with production growing by 34% since 2005. U.S coal production actually decreased slightly during the same timeframe. 

* Pork production – While the U.S. is still the world leader across a broad range of agricultural commodities, pork production isn’t one of them. Due to heavy demand for the commodity by its own population, China produced 51.5 million metric tons of pork in 2010, more than five times America’s production of 10.2 million metric tons.

* Beer – The U.S. led the world in beer production at the turn of the century but has now ceded the leadership to China. Since that time, China has doubled its production to 423 million hectoliters, while production decreased slightly in the U.S. to 232 million hectoliters.

Competing globally while hindered by financial issues, the U.S. looks like it has its work cut out for it. One area that could play a growing role is innovation at the micro-level which then ramps up from there. Without government assistance, mass innovation looks to be our best hope for remaining competitive in the global arena.  

Anthony Ricigliano - News and Advice by Anthony Ricigliano

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

BP Pays a Crony - News by Anthony Ricigliano

Anthony Ricigliano - Latest News: BP's much publicized compensation fund for Gulf oil spill victims has received over 91,000 requests for final damage settlement payments from people and businesses across the Gulf but has only issued one. Give them credit, it was for a hefty sum of $10 million dollars but it comes with one caveat; the recipient is an existing BP business partner that was paid only after BP intervened on their behalf.

BP has not divulged the name of the recipient due to disclosure issues. BP has admitted that it went to bat for their partner to make it the first one to be paid from the $20 billion compensation fund, known as “The Gulf Coast Claims Facility”.  The amount paid to BP’s partner company dwarfs the stopgap payments which have been parceled out while people wait for final settlements.

Another galling aspect of the $10 million payment is that final payments to the remaining 91,000 claimants won’t begin until February at the earliest, according to the administrator of the facility. The fund's administrator is Washington lawyer Kenneth Feinberg, whose firm is being paid $850,000 per month to run the facility. To no one’s surprise Feinberg’s firm has come under intense criticism as well by lawmakers, plaintiffs’ attorneys and claimants who have repeatedly complained that Feinberg’s the facility has no transparency, is running at the behest of BP, has shortchanged claims, and is dragging its feet on payments. You can’t blame Feinberg for this; he is currently negotiating with BP to revamp the pay structure and extend the administration of the facility through August 2013.

While a BP spokesperson claimed that the funding facility "reviewed our positions and made an independent decision regarding the outcome of the claim," Feinberg was independent enough to say on Monday that the facility was never requested to review the claim that BP lobbied for. Feinberg stated that BP struck an outside deal with the business and told the fund to make the payment.

Feinberg told AP that, "At the request of the parties, the settlement reached between BP and the other party was paid out of the GCCF fund. It was a private settlement and we paid it, but we were not privy to the settlement negotiations between BP and that party.”

There is also an appeals process which runs through the U.S. Coast Guard for disgruntled claimants, but that agency isn’t doing claimants any favors either. Of 264 appeals that have been processed, the finding in every one of them was that the facility acted correctly in either denying claims or paying small fraction of what was requested.

It appears that residents and businesses that incurred damages from BP’s blowout are still being held in complete disregard by the people with the money. It’s still rough, unless of course you’re a crony of BP.
Author Anthony Ricigliano

Friday, February 18, 2011

Anthony Ricigliano - A Movement Based on a Number - Anthony Ricigliano Blog

Anthony Ricigliano - News by Anthony J Ricigliano: The challenges facing the citizens that want to take action on global warming are many. First and foremost, there’s the fossil fuel industry, which is the single most profitable enterprise in human history. Challenges dovetail off from the industry due to its money to advance their political agenda and the fact that oil and coal are relatively cheap sources of energy. By the way, part of the reason oil is so cheap is that Big Oil and Big Coal get to dump their byproducts into the atmosphere free of charge.

One of the other challenges is defining what exactly global warming is. The lack of that definition has made the presentation of a convincing global warming argument a complicated issue. Granted, we can easily see that extreme events are occurring on a more frequent basis but defining why is a little fuzzier. Saying that greenhouse gases are to blame may be correct but without a data point the debate can be run all over the board, done as much to confuse the issue as anything else. It’s kind of like saying speeding is dangerous without actually having a speed limit on which to base the conversation.  

This confusion has allowed the agendas of politicians and big oil to be pushed forward even while extreme weather events occur seemingly on a weekly basis. Politically, it now appears that President Obama is now making any concession possible to get re-elected. This includes concessions on the regulation of carbon emissions as monitored by the EPA. The administration is now backing away from proposed regulations to avoid being seen as anti-business and anti-jobs as framed by the Republican Party.

The good news is that a data point has been determined on which we can now define what level of carbon emissions is too high, much like adding a speed limit to a conversation about the dangers of excessive speed. The data point was determined by the planet's foremost climatologist, James Hansen, who found that any carbon value higher than 350 parts per million in the atmosphere was "not compatible with the planet on which civilization developed and to which life on earth is adapted."

That number serves to give global warming a black and white reference point to start working on. The problem is that carbon levels in the atmosphere now measure 390 parts per million, about 11% higher than the level we need to maintain life as we know it. This number has fostered a movement known as 350.org which is now mobilizing people that are interested in saving the planet from global warming.
This mobilization includes the coordination of almost 15,000 global warming demonstrations in 188 countries. Foreign Policy magazine called the demonstrations “the largest ever coordinated global rally" about any issue, ever. If you’re concerned about global warming, 350.org is definitely a great place to start.

Anthony Ricigliano

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Anthony Ricigliano News - Amazing and Depressing Stats on our National Debt

Anthony Ricigliano Anthony Ricigliano Business Advice: The national debt is the amount that the United States has borrowed and is currently paying interest on. The national debt of the U.S. is now over $14 trillion, a number that is larger than the gross domestic product of China, the United Kingdom, and Australia combined.

Here’s a list stats that are amazing but that you may not want to read:

* In 2010, the United States accumulated over $3.5 billion in new debt each and every day. That’s more than $2 million per minute.

* The cost of executing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is well over $1 trillion and counting.

* The Treasury Department estimates that our debt to China is approximately $843 billion and counting.

* According to the January 2010 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, the federal budget deficit in 2009 was $1.4 trillion (9.9% of GDP). The 2010 deficit was approximately $1.3 trillion (9.1% of GDP). Not since 1945 have deficit been that high relative to GDP.

* According to the March 2010 CBO report, at proposed spending levels, the national debt will increase to 90% of GDP by 2020, at about $20 trillion.

* The government is also borrowing from itself, having borrowed from Social Security and Medicare, which have had surpluses.

* In 2009, according to the CBO, $187 billion of tax receipts were used to pay interest on the national debt. This is interest only and does nothing toward reducing the debt.

* The share of the national debt for each employed American is more than $90,000.
Recession and extended war efforts have exacerbated the numbers attached to the national debt as tax receipts have decreased while war and entitlement spending have increased. It’s entirely possible that these expenditures could be decreased (by ending the war effort) while tax receipts increase in an improving economy.

The issue at this point is that both parties seem intent on blowing up the national debt regardless of the factors in play at the present time. Politicians seem intent on continually delivering the message to their constituents that spending can continue and that we’ll deal with the debt monster at a later date. This shifts the debt burden to future generations who will suffer as the debt piled on by earlier generations consumes the lion’s share of the country’s GDP. It seems that everyone is living for today while leaving the bill for our kids, grandchildren, and the generations that follow.    

Author Anthony Ricigliano

Friday, February 11, 2011

Virtual Storage - By Anthony Ricigliano

Author Anthony Ricigliano - News and Articles by Anthony Ricigliano: While it’s true that information is king, he’s definitely a greedy ruler! As the business world continues to demand the storage of more and more data for longer periods of time, the need for increased amounts of disk space grows exponentially larger each year. To compound the issue, the low price of storage space means that many software developers no longer feel the need to make their products space efficient, and government regulations seem to increase legislative requirements for the retention of critical information each year. As the business units see the price tag on servers and disk space become more affordable, they can’t understand why adding just one more should be a problem. They fail to recognize that the cost of a growing computer room includes more than just the initial cost of the storage units.

The Shocking Cost of Maintaining Storage Units

Most non-IT workers would be shocked to find out that the cost of managing each storage unit can be as much as four to 10 times the original purchase price. In addition to putting a big dent in the IT budget, ever increasing storage units lead to server sprawl and a constantly declining operating efficiency. Increased maintenance can also be disruptive, expensive, and burdensome to the entire enterprise. To solve this problem, system engineers have been working on file virtualization methods to eliminate these issues. Their goal is to reduce storage and server inefficiencies while permitting infinite growth. Let’s take a look at exactly how they intend to accomplish this lofty goal.

Breaking the Tight Connection between Clients, Servers, and Storage

The old strategy of tightly coupling storage space with clients and servers is a big reason that adding a new storage unit becomes expensive to maintain. When machines from a variety of vendors are added to the network, they may not all integrate seamlessly creating individual islands of storage to manage. When applications are physically mapped to a specific server for storage, any changes, including additions, require modifications to this complex mapping algorithm. In some cases, adding a new device or moving a system to a storage unit with more space requires expensive and annoying downtime. This often leads to an under-utilization of the actual storage space, an expensive proposition, because system administrators over-allocate space to minimize the need to take an outage. To break free from this outdated methodology, file virtualization relies on the ability to remove this static mapping process to allow storage resources to freely move between applications as needed without restricting access to the data.

Adding a Layer of Intelligent Design to the Network

File virtualization adds a layer of intelligence to the network to decouple logical data access from the physical retrieval of the actual files. This separates the application and the client from the physical storage devices so that static mapping is no longer needed. With this change, the existing bank of servers can be maintained without disrupting the core system or the user’s access to valuable information. After implementing a file virtualization strategy, many IT shops find that they can consolidate storage units and increase their overall utilization. In this way, they may be able to simplify the system configuration by decommissioning older storage devices that are no longer needed or that they can go much longer than anticipated without adding additional disk space.

In today’s IT world, most shops are finding that using a file virtualization system is not only a “best practice," it’s a must-do to continue operating. IT shops with budgets that continued to rise each year just a short time ago are seeing their available funds shrink more and more each year. With increasing pressure to reduce costs or keep the flat, file virtualization is also a virtual requirement.

Anthony Ricigliano

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Virtualization for the Dynamic Enterprise

Anthony Ricigliano News - Business Advice by Anthony Ricigliano:

What does Server Virtualization Mean?

Server virtualization is the use of technology to separate software, including the operating system, from the hardware. This means that you can run several environments on the same physical server. In some installations, this could mean that several identical operating systems are run on the same machine. Other shops could decide to run a Windows platform, a Linux system, and an UNIX environment on a single server.

Advantages of Server Virtualization

In today’s demanding business environment, server virtualization offers many different advantages. Not only does virtualization allow servers and data to be more mobile than ever, it also provides a cost-effective way to balance flat or shrinking budgets. The following list details the major benefits:

• Consolidation – Most large servers run applications that only take up a small percentage of their processing power. Even busy software packages usually only have small peak times that utilize over 50% of their CPU capabilities. The rest of the time, the capacity is unused. By virtualizing the server so that additional systems can take advantage of under-utilized resources, IT shops can increase their return-on-investment (ROI). Although some companies have reported a consolidation ratio as high as 12:1, most shops can easily show a 3:1 to 4:1 rate.

• Decreased Footprint – By decreasing the number of physical servers, the size of the computer room can be reduced and utility costs should decrease.

• Lower Hardware Costs – The utilization of a higher percentage of existing hardware resources will reduce the total number of physical servers that are needed. This will save money on the upfront expense of purchasing hardware and the long-term cost of maintenance.

• Flexibility – Server virtualization allows an IT shop to be much more flexible. Instead of waiting for new hardware to arrive before implementing a new system, a new virtual server can be created on an existing machine. This also provides a more flexible method for migration and disaster recovery.

• Easier Testing and Development – Historically, IT installations have used separate physical servers for their development, acceptance testing, and production environments. With virtualization, it is an easy process to create either different or identical operating environments on the same server. This allows developers to compare performance on several different environments without impacting the stability of the production system.

Virtualization and Disaster Recovery

The growth in both international business and large-scale natural disasters has many organizations closely analyzing their disaster recovery plans and general hardware malfunction procedures. In either event, it is critical to be back up and running in a very short period of time. Most modern IT shops require consistent up-time 24-hours a day to maintain their core operations, or their business will be severely impacted. Both reliability and accessibility are greatly improved when server virtualization is used to its fullest potential.

By reducing the total number of servers needed to duplicate the production environment, it is much less expensive to create and test an off-site disaster recovery environment. Hardware, space, and backup expenses are dramatically reduced. It’s easy to see how setting up 30 or 40 pieces of hardware would be both easier and cheaper than configuring 100 items.

Along the same lines, a hardware malfunction will be less of an issue with server virtualization. While many more systems will run on the same piece of hardware, most shops find that they can easily duplicate physical servers for automatic rollover in the event of a hardware failure when they virtualize.

Major Virtualization Products

While there are always smaller players in any new technology, VMware and Microsoft Virtual Server are the biggest providers of server virtualization products.

• VMware offers the free VMware Server package or the more robust VMware ESX and ESXi products. Systems that are virtualized by VMware products are extremely portable and can be installed on virtually any new piece of hardware with a low incidence of complications. The system can be suspended on one machine, moved to another one, and immediately resume operations at the suspense point when restarted.

• Microsoft Virtual Server is a virtualization product that works best with the Windows operating systems, but can also run other systems like the popular Linux OS.
Anthony Ricigliano

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Anthony Ricigliano - Successful Technology Project Management

Anthony Ricigliano - Business News and Advice by Anthony J Ricigliano:
Managing a Technology Project involves managing both the new system components and the programmers and analysts that create them. In many ways, managing the people involved can be a more daunting task that tracking each new piece of code or hardware item. If each person on the team is not kept up-to-date and on the same page, the process can quickly break down and mistakes will be made.

The Right Approach Can Increase the Chances of Success
While the exact approach taken may depend on the organization and the project details, there are a few methods that should always be used. Many project managers like to detail their project within software packages like Microsoft Project, or Sharepoint, but it may not be very effective without communication that goes beyond recording tasks and deadlines. The project manager should realize that while some people work well with a list, most people will need more direction. In addition, the team will probably be made up of an assortment of people with different learning styles. The material should be presented verbally and visually for the best results. At a minimum, the project manager should create a project plan, schedule a launch meeting to explain the project in detail, and then plan on weekly meetings for progress reports and problem resolution.

Improved Human Interaction Can Prevent Project Failures
If a project manager only informs, and doesn't communicate, there is a high chance that the project will fail. They should be open to all questions, feedback, and suggestions to ensure that everyone understands both their role in the project and the potential cost of a failure. Excellent suggestions about better methods for implementing new technology can sometimes come from surprising sources. If an open-door approach is not maintained, a team member with a great idea could decide to keep it to themselves rather than risk ridicule or rejection. While it is important to go over the minute details of system changes that must be implemented, it is just as important that everyone understands the big picture. If the entire team understands that their next raise is dependent on the revenue increase that a successful project outcome will bring and that a failure could mean layoffs, they will be more likely to put in their best effort. The project manager should also make sure that they are aware of each team member's vacation plans and personal issues that could result in an absence during a critical phase of the project. While unforeseen events will always happen during a project, asking a few questions can minimize the surprises.

Is Over-Communication Possible?
While anything is possible, it's very hard to over-communicate during a project. Always ask for elaboration on any answer to make sure that each party understands both the question and the answer. Yes and no questions rarely give the full picture. Frequently, team members will think they have the same technical definition of a business term, but actually bring a slightly different viewpoint to the table. Neither is wrong, just from different perspectives. For example, one person may think that a payment timetable begins when they place an order, while someone in a different area may think that the clock doesn't start ticking until the product actually arrives.

Communicate at all Levels within the Organization
Effective communication is required within and between all levels of the organization. While executives have very different perspectives than middle management and the technical staff, they will need frequent updates about each project. The executive level should expect weekly updates that let them know whether or not the project is on target to meet the deadline or if the project manager requires additional resources to achieve the ultimate goal. Middle management will also require a weekly update, but will want more details about each task and the testing results. The team will require the most information so that they know if their part is causing a delay in any other area or if they will have to wait on another component before they can complete their part. Communication should go both ways. Projects that involve inter-company partnerships require even more back and forth communication. As the project approaches its target launch dates, meetings may be escalated from weekly to daily when necessary.

Effective Communication Leads to Improved Support
When everyone feels like they are a valuable part of the project, they are more likely to provide the support required for a successful project. Each person involved from management to staff with minimal roles should be included in all communications and feel that they are providing useful input so that they engaged and buy into the importance of success. An executive who believes in the value that the project will bring to the organization will be more likely to pull a few strings when needed to add resources to a project when they are desperately needed. Along the same line, a technician who feels that their input is heard will be more likely to fit your needs into their busy schedule than if they think their ideas are only given a token amount of consideration.

by Anthony Ricigliano

IT's A Wireless World - By Anthony Ricigliano

Anthony Ricigliano - Business Advice by Anthony Ricigliano
In today's business world, the use of Wireless Local Area Networks (WLAN) continues to grow. As users perform more and more of their day-to-day responsibilities through wireless connections, a reliable, secure WLAN is mission critical for the modern mobile business. Although the implementation cost for robust WLANs continues to drop, the operational expenses for maintenance, security, and troubleshooting are on the rise.

Operational Challenges

Because WLANs use a license-free radio signal for connectivity, the operational challenges of keeping the network running issue-free are very different from supporting a traditional wired network. The following list details the key wireless performance issues that affect WLAN deployments:

• Coverage and Capacity - Because signal strength weakens as the distance from the transmitting device increases, many buildings experience coverage holes and fading signals. Poor connections or the inability to connect at all can be frustrating and negatively impact productivity. Bottlenecks in the system can affect throughput as Access Points (AP) are overloaded or specific users consume excessive network resources.

• Noise and Interference - Because many other devices, from microwave ovens to Bluetooth devices, use the same type of frequency as the WLAN radio signals, ambient thermal noise and interference can create intermittent problems that are hard to detect. Although equipment does exist to detect these issues, the price tag is usually cost prohibitive leaving many IT departments to guess about the actual source of their WLAN problems.

• Connectivity Problems - When a user reports they are having problems connecting to the network, the list of potential problems is long. On the user's side, it could be user error, an incorrect security key, or a bad driver. The AP could be having hardware or configuration problems, or the gateway on the wired network could be having a problem.

• Roaming Issues - As a wireless client moves, or roams, it switches from one AP to the next. If the switch doesn't go smoothly, the user may experience latency or jittery connections. Instead of using a laptop analyzer that makes troubleshooting a connection to a single AP easy, a distributed monitoring system is required to find roaming problems.

Security Risks


The same radio waves that make WLANs convenient and easy to implement create a way for hackers to attack the system. With the growth of identity theft rings, malware attacks, and other internet threats, it's critical that businesses address the security issues relatd to WLAN use. There are three primary ways that hackers take advantage of WLANS:

• Denial of Service - The hacker floods the network with signals that impact the availability of resources.

• Spoofing - The hacker assumes the identity of a valid user to steal sensitive information. An attacker may even disguise their connection as an AP.

• Eavesdropping - Because WLANs radiate network traffic into the open air, it is possible to collect this information from a remote location. Hackers are sometimes able to intercept confidential data in this way. Because the information also reaches its original destination, unprotected businesses are often unaware that this has occurred until it is too late.

Best Practices

Every IT department should research the industry's recommended best practices to manage and mitigate both the operational challenges and the security risks that come with WLANS. Some of these methods include:

• Use APs as network monitors. Within special AP firmware, promiscuous mode can be set so that specific APs serve as sensors to continuously monitor the network for performance issues and security violations. This allows network administrators to research wireless issues from anywhere with access to the WLAN.

• Take advantage of automated tools. Because WLAN use is increasingly prevalent, software development firms are developing new WLAN monitoring tools every day. Evaluate several to find the one that best fits your IT department’s needs to reduce the time needed to troubleshoot operational problems.

• Encrypt wireless traffic. By using protocols like Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) or standards like 802.11i, data transmitted across the WLAN is encrypted. Unless the receiver has the correct encryption key, the information is useless.

• Change the default SSID. Because the Service Set Identifier (SSID) works as a password when devices make a connection to the WLAN, it must be changed regularly to maintain high security levels.

• Use Virtual Private Networks (VPN). A VPN provides a secure, encrypted connection to the WLAN from a remote location so that hackers can't use intercepted information.

• Minimize WLAN radio waves in non-user areas. By restricting radio transmissions to the inside of the physical building as much as possible, hackers will be less likely to attack the system from the parking lot or street.
Author Anthony Ricigliano

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Anthony Ricigliano - China Sneezes and the World Catches a Cold

Anthony Ricigliano News - The powers that be in China, after seeing growth heat up to 11.9 in the first quarter of the year, decided that is cooling down the economy with lending and investment curbs was needed to prevent overheating. These curbs went to work immediately, slowing the growth rate more sharply than expected with a result of reducing demand for U.S. and European factory machinery, industrial components from Asia and iron ore as well as other raw materials from Australia and Africa.

The timing of China’s slowdown comes at a bad time for exporters that have seen sales go slack just about everywhere else. Already a huge trading partner for many of these countries prior to the recessions that hit the U.S., Europe and others, China had taken a role as the only game town due to a stimulus-driven expansion program designed to compensate for slowing sales elsewhere.
Even with slowing growth China overtook Japan as the second-biggest economy in the second quarter. It is a buyer of 28 percent of Taiwan's exports, 25 percent of South Korea's and more than 20 percent of Australia's mining and raw materials production. Japan just reported sharply lower growth for its second quarter as the growth of exports was almost halved from the first quarter
That being said, it is the producers of iron ore for steel production and other construction-related raw materials which are expected to take the hardest hits from China’s self imposed slowdown. The winding down of a construction boom pushed by China's $586 billion stimulus program as well as billions of dollars in of bank lending is already being felt. These producers include Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and parts of Africa.

New construction projects dwindled as Beijing wound down its stimulus and tightened credit in the second quarter to take the air out of inflating bubbles in real estate and stock prices, slashing demand for steel, cement and other construction related materials. Factory output slowed as well and is expected to head lower in the third quarter as well.

Overall, China’s import growth slowed by about one-third in July, sending tremors throughout the world as the most robust buyer of imported goods for many countries took a step back from the table. An example of the bind China’s slowdown is putting countries in is Taiwan, a major source of components for Chinese factories that make televisions and other electronics, which are in turn sent as finished products United States. China’s slower growth, combined with slowing sales in the U.S. at the same time could hit Taiwan’s manufacturing industries particularly hard.

China, at this point, sits in the enviable position of trying to restrain growth while the rest of the world either relies on them for their relatively healthy economies, such as Australia or tries to recover from recession, like the U.S. With China expecting slower growth over the next several quarters, it could be a rough ride for everyone. 

Author Anthony Ricigliano

Monday, October 25, 2010

Will BP’s Seal Stick? - News By Anthony Ricigliano

News by Anthony Ricigliano: After having held gushing oil in place since the middle of July, crews from BP are carefully drilling a secondary relief well which, when completed, will deliver a permanent plug into the oil well that has become the biggest oil spill in U.S. history. The drilling of the last phase of the relief well must be done with extreme caution to ensure that it intersects the broken well line. It is hoped that the relief well can reinforce the initial cap and provide a permanent solution by pumping more mud and cement into the well.

With the oil stopped since July 15th, all eyes will be on the "bottom kill" operation which is designed to both permanently seal the well and allow for options on reopening it in the future. Prior to the temporary seal going in, oil flowed out of the broken well for almost three months after Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP had leased, exploded on April 20. The explosion killed 11 employees on the platform and released over 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf. Investigations are ongoing as whether BP cut corners in their operations in order to save money in the days preceding the blowout.

The first test after the connection of the relief well will be to see if pressure gradually builds up at the point of the seal. The lines which have been releasing oil and gas to surface ships to minimize pressure on the cap would be closed to see if pressure builds naturally within the well.  Increasing pressure would indicate that the two and a half miles of casing which lines the well bore is intact which could lead to an oil capture scheme with surface ships capturing oil from the well. Estimates are that four ships could capture up to 60,000 barrels a day. If pressure does not build in the well it would indicate that the casing is damaged and testing would be halted. The relief lines which have been shut would reopen and testing of the casing would commence.

The operation to finally seal the well should provide relief to the cleanup efforts, but for many the damage has already been done. With the Fall shrimping season set to open on August 16th, many of the fishing grounds will remain closed as federal authorities monitor toxin levels in shrimp, crabs, and other seafood. The reminder of these closures was evident as the pre-season “Blessing of the Boats” ceremonies saw barbequed sausage, chicken, and other items on the menu but no sign of the shrimp and crab dishes that are the traditional fare for the celebrations.
 
There hasn’t been much talk about future plans for the well but it seems unlikely that it will remain closed permanently. While establishing another rig may be extremely unpopular with residents around the Gulf, the sheer volume of oil in the well and BP’s desire to recoup some of the $6.1 billion in costs related to the blowout make it likely that surface ships will eventually be replaced by another platform along the lines of Deepwater Horizon. One certainty in that situation is that it will be closely watched with highest safety standards possible. BP owes nothing less than that to everyone and everything that has been affected by this ecological disaster.
Author Anthony Ricigliano

Friday, October 22, 2010

Anthony Ricigliano - The Fed, Wall Street, and the Unemployed

News By Anthony Ricigliano: With so much going on around it, the Fed appears to have forgotten one of its two mandates; the forgotten one being to promote full employment. The last time anybody there looked, the unemployment rate was and still is 9.5%. This number is very likely to head higher in the second half of the year. The economy lost another 130,000 jobs last month and estimates for the GDP range from a slip back into negative territory to around 1% to the positive over the next four quarters.

With these circumstances the Fed, if they were following their mandate, would be taking aggressive steps to bring the economy back to full employment. With inflation numbers hovering around one percent, there are no worries that prices are going to run away anytime soon. In fact, inflation numbers in the 3 to 4% area would probably go a long way toward getting companies to begin hiring again due to a sharp decrease in real interest rates. 

The issue keeping the Fed from pursuing its employment mandate is that those levels of inflation would be very unpopular with Wall Street. Superseding the needs of Americans who are out of work, 3 to 4% inflation would be devastating to Wall Street by hammering the massive amounts of mortgage debt on which they’re currently sitting. So who is the Fed listening to?

The fact is that Ben Bernanke’s Fed has had Wall Street’s back all along, going back to the beginning of the banking crisis when, by their own doing, Wall Street’s banks teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. That time Bernanke conned Congress into passing the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) by saying that the commercial paper market was in jeopardy of freezing up, with a near term result of denying access to short-term credit necessary to operate through the meltdown. What he didn’t mention was that the Fed could have opened its own lending facility for that purpose. Coincidentally, he announced the establishment of a lending facility to buy commercial paper the weekend after Congress approved TARP.

That the Fed had a direct responsibility for inflating the housing bubble goes without saying. Even as signs of overheating were becoming obvious, Alan Greenspan himself was talking up adjustable rate mortgages as a means buy a home. These were the same types of mortgages that started the housing debacle but the Fed stuck to its guns as long as possible.

What the country needs at this point is a truly independent Fed that is not beholden to Wall Street and remembers its mandate of promoting full employment for the citizens of this country. We don’t have that now and it’s hard to imagine getting something like that anytime soon. One thing is for certain, with the Fed behind it, Wall Street knows it can mess up big and the Fed will be there with a shovel to clean it up.

Author Anthony J Ricigliano