Pages

Monday, April 15, 2013

China Sneezes and the World Catches a Cold


The powers that be in China, after seeing growth heat up to 11.9 in the first quarter of the year, decided that is cooling down the economy with lending and investment curbs was needed to prevent overheating. These curbs went to work immediately, slowing the growth rate more sharply than expected with a result of reducing demand for U.S. and European factory machinery, industrial components from Asia and iron ore as well as other raw materials from Australia and Africa.
The timing of China’s slowdown comes at a bad time for exporters that have seen sales go slack just about everywhere else. Already a huge trading partner for many of these countries prior to the recessions that hit the U.S., Europe and others, China had taken a role as the only game town due to a stimulus-driven expansion program designed to compensate for slowing sales elsewhere.
Even with slowing growth China overtook Japan as the second-biggest economy in the second quarter. It is a buyer of 28 percent of Taiwan's exports, 25 percent of South Korea's and more than 20 percent of Australia's mining and raw materials production. Japan just reported sharply lower growth for its second quarter as the growth of exports was almost halved from the first quarter
That being said, it is the producers of iron ore for steel production and other construction-related raw materials which are expected to take the hardest hits from China’s self imposed slowdown. The winding down of a construction boom pushed by China's $586 billion stimulus program as well as billions of dollars in of bank lending is already being felt. These producers include Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and parts of Africa.
New construction projects dwindled as Beijing wound down its stimulus and tightened credit in the second quarter to take the air out of inflating bubbles in real estate and stock prices, slashing demand for steel, cement and other construction related materials. Factory output slowed as well and is expected to head lower in the third quarter as well.
Overall, China’s import growth slowed by about one-third in July, sending tremors throughout the world as the most robust buyer of imported goods for many countries took a step back from the table. An example of the bind China’s slowdown is putting countries in is Taiwan, a major source of components for Chinese factories that make televisions and other electronics, which are in turn sent as finished products United States. China’s slower growth, combined with slowing sales in the U.S. at the same time could hit Taiwan’s manufacturing industries particularly hard.
China, at this point, sits in the enviable position of trying to restrain growth while the rest of the world either relies on them for their relatively healthy economies, such as Australia or tries to recover from recession, like the U.S. With China expecting slower growth over the next several quarters, it could be a rough ride for everyone.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Where We Were, Where Are, and Where We Need to Be


Quantifying the global warming problem is as easy as understanding three numbers; 275, 388, and 350.
* 275 – During all of human history, up until about 200 years ago, our atmosphere contained 275 parts per million of carbon dioxide. Measuring in parts per million is a standard method of calculating the concentration of different gases in the atmosphere. This number provides the ratio of the number of carbon dioxide molecules to all of the other molecules in the atmosphere. The 275 parts per million that carbon dioxide historically represented in the atmosphere was a relatively constant number. Its presence is also a necessity because without some carbon dioxide and other gases, heat would not be trapped in our atmosphere and the planet would be too cold for humans, plants and animals to survive.
* 388 – As humans began to burn fossil fuels to power the Industrial Revolution, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere began to rise slowly. Over the last 200 years, fossil fuels have become incorporated into many aspects of daily life including gasoline for cars, heating fuels, as a component of plastics, etc. The broad use of carbon dioxide emitting fossil fuels has now increased the level of carbon dioxide to 388 parts per million, a level scientists now agree is an unsafe level if we are interested in preserving our way of life. The rise in atmospheric carbon has resulted in the warming of the Earth with results that include massive melting of glaciers, the disappearance of Arctic Sea ice, droughts, and a variety of extreme weather. Sea levels are also rising and the disappearance of beaches is already occurring. Left unchecked, the rise in sea levels could be as much as several meters this century, which would be a disaster of epic proportions.
* 350 – This is the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide that represents stasis for the world’s environment as well as the safety level for maximum carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Returning to this level will require that humans reduce their fossil fuel usage and replace it with renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Taking these actions as well as improving agricultural and forestry practices around the world could get carbon levels back to the 350 level by the middle of the century.
The problem is, the longer we stay in the danger zone above 350 parts per million, the greater the risk for disastrous events. The time to start is now.

What the Freeh Report Says About Penn State University and the NCAA


The "Freeh Report" a detailed examination of the sexual abuse scandal and cover up at Penn State University "...is a 267-page message about the danger of unchecked sports power." according to Tom Goldman of NPR. The report, conducted by the law firm of former FBI director Louis Freeh, exposes the culture and cover up of the scandal, which reached the highest levels of authority at the university.

The report states that the president of Penn State, Graham Spanier, had been informed about an accusation in December 1997 that longtime Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky had been seen molesting a young boy while showering with him in the Penn State locker room. Instead of taking the initiative to investigate the accusations, Spanier stood down saying that looking into the accusations wouldn't be the "humane" way to handle the situation.

At approximately the same time, Spanier was lowering the boom on Penn State running back Curtis Enis and his agent Jeff Nalley because Nalley had bought a suit for Enis to wear on an ESPN awards show. Spanier declared Enis ineligible for the upcoming Citrus Bowl and Nalley was reported to the NCAA and declared as "persona non grata" at Penn State. Spanier said at the time "He fooled around with the integrity of the university, and I won't stand for that."

While enabling Sandusky to continue molesting young boys, Spanier used his positions on the NCAA Board of Directors and the NCAA management council to consistently oppose reforms created to provide assistance to athletes for admissions and other reforms aimed at helping athletes from disadvantaged programs and high schools.

His non-action regarding Sandusky while opposing anything that empowered athletes while trumpeting the superiority of Penn State's morality and ethical standards stands as the epitome of hypocrisy at the highest ranks of both Penn State and the NCAA. Two of the people under Spanier, vice president Gary Schultz and athletic director Tim Curley have already been indicted for their roles in the scandal. It is entirely possible that Spanier will be indicted as well. For the victims that suffered Sandusky's attacks because Spanier thought it wouldn't be "humane" to intervene, an indictment might just be another step down the road to closure.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Anthony Ricigliano: How to Innovate your own Business into Existence


Innovation isn’t the province of a select few. It exists in everyone waiting to be discovered. Learning any new skill always takes time and it's the same with developing an innovative mindset.  Don’t be disappointed if you’re not innovating 24/7 immediately. It will take a bit of practice and probably a couple of changes in the way you go about your day. Here are a few ideas on how to bring innovation into your life to bring your own business into existence.
* Ignore the doubters – Don't listen to other people that cast doubts on what you’re trying to do. People cast doubts for a variety of reasons and most of those will have nothing to with you. If you’re working on a new business, don't waste your time and effort trying to convince people that you’re doing the right thing. The great entrepreneurs never listened to the doubters and neither should you.
* Seek guidance – Getting a mentor or guidance from someone that has done what you want to do can give you confidence in what you’re trying to accomplish and help you avoid common mistakes.
* Commit the time – Spend time on your project because if you don’t, nobody else is going to do it either. This will require some time management and discipline to make sure you can fit everything in to your life.
* No excuses – Make do with what you’ve got and don’t get bogged down because you don’t have the hottest IPad on the market. Many people use fewer tools as they become more proficient at their craft. You may have to be resourceful but that’s also a part of being innovative.
* Develop your passion – In starting a new business, you may be caught up in learning the ropes and executing your plan. If you’re truly doing something you want to do, your passion will likely build as you become more proficient and your belief than you can succeed strengthens. This passion can turn you into an unstoppable force under the right conditions.
* Don't worry if you’re not inspired 24/7 – Not everything you do in your business will provide inspiration. If you’re following your passion, inspiration will arrive at the most unexpected times. For example, JK Rowling got the idea for Harry Potter while she was stuck on a train that was in the middle of a four hour delay.
* Take care of yourself – You’re at your best, at your most creative, and you are most innovative when you’re healthy. Great things and ideas can come when you’re exercising so don’t think of it as time that you’re taking away from your business.
Keep in mind that your business is your business and that you’re doing these things for your own satisfaction and not anybody else's. A little success will bring the doubters around soon enough.